Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction, tips and odds
- Derby
- league
- Chelsea: normal
- Tottenham: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- English Premier League
- Referee
- Chris Kavanagh
- 4.3 cards a game
Our prediction
Emiliano Martinez (out), Reece James (out), Pep Chavarria (out), Emmanuel Emegha (out), Jamie Gittens (out)
Rodrigo Bentancur (out), Destiny Udogie (out), Lucas Bergvall (out), Savio (out), James Maddison (doubtful)
- goals per meeting
- 2.7goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 2/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Chelsea come throughOur pickChelsea1.88
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
- Projected goals
- 3.2
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–024%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.90
| Stat | CHE | TOT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 1.33 | 3.2 |
| Corners | 5.29 | 5.81 | 11.1 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 12.5 | 24.1 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | CHE | TOT |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/5 | 1/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 2/5 |
- WTottenham Hotspur 0–1 Chelsea2025-11-01 · Premier League1 gls
- WChelsea 2–1 Tottenham Hotspur2026-05-19 · Premier League3 gls
- WChelsea 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur2025-04-03 · Premier League1 gls
- WTottenham Hotspur 3–4 Chelsea2024-12-08 · Premier League7 gls
- WChelsea 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur2024-05-02 · Premier League2 gls
Match context
- Forecast rain at Stamford Bridge 17:30 Sat (82% chance, ~11C), wind ~15mph SSW per oddstrader/fairfarefinder
- Form
- Chelsea W-W-D-L-L in last five league games (2-0 at Everton, 5-1 v Bournemouth, 2-2 v Hull, 0-3 at Brentford, 1-2 at Arsenal), scoring freely at home; Tottenham W-D-L-D-L (3-1 v Coventry, 1-1 at Man Utd, 2-3 v Villa, 0-0 v Everton, 0-3 at Brentford) — low-scoring, first league f…
- History
- Chelsea have dominated this derby for a decade: unbeaten in the last six Premier League meetings (5 wins, 1 draw since Feb 2023), and Spurs have won just one of the last 15-16 league meetings overall. Recent league H2H: Tottenham 0-1 Chelsea (Nov 2025), Chelsea 2-1 Spurs (May 2026, Chelsea scoring 1st-half and 2nd-half goals), Chelsea 1-0 Spurs (Apr 2025), Spurs 3-4 Chelsea (Dec 2024, 2-1 at HT — 7 goals), Chelsea 2-0 Spurs (May 2024, 1-0 at HT), Spurs 2-0 Chelsea (Feb 2023, 0-0 at HT). Chelsea…
- The competition
- English Premier League 2026-27 (35th PL season, 128th top-flight season), the English first tier — a standard league round, Matchweek 9, at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea sit 4th after 7 games (4-1-2, 13 pts, 17 GF / 13 GA) under Xabi Alonso and are chasing the Champions League places behind Man City (21), Arsenal (18) and Brighton (16). Tottenham are 16th (1-3-3, 6 pts, 6 GF / 10 GA) under De Zerbi; they had gone six league games without a win and sat bottom before beating Coventry 3-1 on 19 Oct. Sp…
- Referee cards
- 4.3a game
- Chelsea cards
- 1.9a game
- Tottenham cards
- 1.3a game
Team news
- Emiliano Martinez — out (gk)
- Reece James — out (def)
- Pep Chavarria — out (def)
- Emmanuel Emegha — out (fwd)
- Jamie Gittens — out (fwd)
- Rodrigo Bentancur — out (mid)
- Destiny Udogie — out (def)
- Lucas Bergvall — out (mid)
- Savio — out (fwd)
- James Maddison — doubtful (mid)
English Premier League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | — | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | — | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | — | 13 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | — | 6 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | — | 6 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Erling HaalandManchester City8 goals
- 2João PedroChelsea5 goals
- 3Alexander IsakLiverpool5 goals
- 4Morgan RogersChelsea4 goals
- 5Rayan CherkiManchester City4 goals
- 1Pascal GroßBrighton & Hove Albion4 assists
- 1Bart VerbruggenBrighton & Hove Albion4 clean sheets
- 2Alisson BeckerLiverpool3 clean sheets
- 3Gianluigi DonnarummaManchester City3 clean sheets
- 4Jordan PickfordEverton3 clean sheets
- 5David RayaArsenal3 clean sheets
espn.co.uk stats / premierleague.com Golden Boot & Golden Glove articles (15-17 Oct 2026); FBref notes Pascal Groß 4 assists as of 2 Oct.
More tips this week
- Aston Villa vs Man City · Full time result · Man City1.66
- Arsenal vs Everton · Full time result · Arsenal1.51
- Coventry vs Fulham · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.07
- Tigre vs Atl Tucuman · Full time result · Tigre2.02
- Western Sydney (W) vs Brisbane Roar FC (W)
- Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC · Half time · Under 2.5 Goals1.23
Frequently asked questions
What is our Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction?
We project 1–1. Our model gives Chelsea 49%, the draw 23% and Tottenham 28%.
What is the best bet for Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Our tip is Full time result · Chelsea at 1.88. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Chelsea vs Tottenham kick off?
Chelsea vs Tottenham kicks off at Sat 16:30 in the English Premier League.
Who is out for Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Reported absences: Emiliano Martinez (out), Reece James (out), Pep Chavarria (out), Emmanuel Emegha (out), Jamie Gittens (out), Rodrigo Bentancur (out), Destiny Udogie (out), Lucas Bergvall (out), Savio (out), James Maddison (doubtful).
What happened the last time Chelsea vs Tottenham met?
Tottenham Hotspur 0–1 Chelsea (2025-11-01 · Premier League). Over their last 6 meetings it is 5 wins for Chelsea, 0 draws and 1 for Tottenham.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.