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English Football League Cup

Everton vs Newcastle prediction, tips and odds

Everton, beaten 0-2 twice running, host a Newcastle side chasing a fifth straight League Cup quarter-final, with Branthwaite out and Grealish doubtful for a patched Everton spine.
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • rotation risk
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • Everton: high
  • Newcastle: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
English Football League Cup

Our prediction

Everton
FormL, L, D, D, W

Jarrad Branthwaite (out), Vitalii Mykolenko (doubtful), Jack Grealish (doubtful)

Newcastle
FormW, L, L, W

Tino Livramento (out), Ewen Jaouen (out), Lewis Miley (doubtful), Matias Fernandez-Pardo (doubtful)

Our prediction
1–12.8 goals projected
EVE 36%Draw 25%NEW 39%
goals per meeting
2.6goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
3/5with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/5over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Newcastle keep it closeOur pickNewcastle starts 1 goal ahead
    1.36
  • Somebody winsOur pickHome or Away
    Price hidden until revealed
Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
EVE 36%Draw 25%NEW 39%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–112%
  • 0–19%
  • 1–29%
Projected goals
2.8
Likeliest at half time
0–028%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Everton against Newcastle
StatEVENEWTotal
Goals1.381.432.8
Expected goals (xG)1.691.413.1
Shots15.313.929.3
Shots on target4.853.768.6

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
EvertonL, L, D, D, W
NewcastleW, L, L, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendEVENEW
Over 2.5 goals2/52/4
Both teams scored2/52/4
Clean sheets1/51/4
Failed to score2/51/4
Head-to-head · last 5
2
EVE wins
2
Draws
1
NEW wins
  • WNewcastle United 2–3 Everton2026-02-28 · Premier League (2025-26)5 gls
  • LEverton 1–4 Newcastle United2025-11-29 · Premier League (2025-26)5 gls
  • WNewcastle United 0–1 Everton2025-05-25 · Premier League (2024-25)1 gls
  • DEverton 0–0 Newcastle United2024-10-05 · Premier League (2024-25)0 gls
  • DNewcastle United 1–1 Everton2024-04-02 · Premier League (2023-24)2 gls
2.6goals per meeting3/5with both teams scoring2/5over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Everton LLDWDW-ish: back-to-back 0-2 league defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal after 2-2 at Hull and 1-1 at Bournemouth, 4-0 cup win at Preston; Newcastle WLDW: 2-0 win at Palace (0-0 HT) but 1-4 at Coventry and 0-1 v Villa, 3-2 cup win over West Brom (1-1 HT).
History
No meaningful League Cup history: the two last met in this competition in Nov 2002 (Newcastle hosted, 3-3 after 90 mins, Everton won on penalties). Recent league meetings, most recent first: Newcastle 2-3 Everton (Feb 2026, HT 1-2), Everton 1-4 Newcastle (Nov 2025, HT 0-3), Newcastle 0-1 Everton (May 2025, HT 0-0), Everton 0-0 Newcastle (Oct 2024, HT 0-0), Newcastle 1-1 Everton (Apr 2024, HT 1-0). Everton have 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 league meetings, but Newcastle are the stronger club…
The competition
Carabao Cup (English League Cup) fourth round, single-leg knockout, Premier League level (tier 1), both sides top-flight. Everton sit 11th (8 games, 10 pts, 8-9), Newcastle 8th (8 games, 11 pts, 12-14) after eight PL rounds. Everton have lost back-to-back 0-2 to Chelsea and Arsenal; Newcastle beat Palace 2-0 but lost 1-4 at Coventry and 0-1 to Villa. Winner goes to Fleetwood Town away in the quarter-finals, so a real prize is at stake; both managers may rotate heavily in a midweek cup tie with…

Team news

Everton
  • Jarrad Branthwaite — out (def)
  • Vitalii Mykolenko — doubtful (def)
  • Jack Grealish — doubtful (mid)
Newcastle
  • Tino Livramento — out (def)
  • Ewen Jaouen — out (gk)
  • Lewis Miley — doubtful (mid)
  • Matias Fernandez-Pardo — doubtful (fwd)

More tips this week

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Everton vs Newcastle prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Everton 36%, the draw 25% and Newcastle 39%.

What is the best bet for Everton vs Newcastle?

Our tip is Newcastle starts 1 goal ahead at 1.36.

What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?

Everton vs Newcastle kicks off at Thu 19:45 in the English Football League Cup.

Who is out for Everton vs Newcastle?

Reported absences: Jarrad Branthwaite (out), Vitalii Mykolenko (doubtful), Jack Grealish (doubtful), Tino Livramento (out), Ewen Jaouen (out), Lewis Miley (doubtful), Matias Fernandez-Pardo (doubtful).

What happened the last time Everton vs Newcastle met?

Newcastle United 2–3 Everton (2026-02-28 · Premier League (2025-26)). Over their last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Everton, 2 draws and 1 for Newcastle.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.