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English Football League Cup

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal prediction, tips and odds

League Two Fleetwood, on a sold-out first-ever meeting with the champions, face an Arsenal side missing Saka and Saliba but still expected to change up to eight players.
  • one sided
  • weakened side
  • high stakes
  • high ceiling
  • rotation risk
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • Fleetwood Town: high
  • Arsenal: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
English Football League Cup

Our prediction

Fleetwood Town
18th · 14 pts
FormL, L, W, D, W

Lewis McCann (out), Kane Thompson-Sommers (out), Andy Cannon (out)

Arsenal
FormW, D, W, W, W

Bukayo Saka (out), William Saliba (out), Christos Tzolis (out), Riccardo Calafiori (doubtful)

Our prediction
0–23.2 goals projected
FLE 10%Draw 16%ARS 74%
likeliest half-time score
0–1likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Arsenal come throughOur pickArsenal
    1.13
  • A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 2.5 Goals
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
FLE 10%Draw 16%ARS 74%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 0–212%
  • 0–110%
  • 0–310%
Projected goals
3.2
Likeliest at half time
0–126%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Fleetwood Town against Arsenal
StatFLEARSTotal
Goals0.772.423.2
Expected goals (xG)1.261.42.7
Corners4.725.059.8
Fouls13.211.424.6

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
Fleetwood TownL, L, W, D, W
ArsenalW, D, W, W, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendFLEARS
Over 2.5 goals3/53/5
Both teams scored4/52/5
Clean sheets1/53/5
Failed to score0/50/5

Match context

  • Blustery and wet in Fleetwood Tue: gusts near 49mph forecast, wet spells after heavy Monday rain
Form
Fleetwood LLDWDL in league (4-2 Cheltenham, 1-2 Exeter, 2-0 Rotherham, 1-1 Walsall, 0-1 Salford) plus a 4-1 EFL Trophy win; scoring but leaking. Arsenal WWWWD, three clean sheets (2-0 Everton, 1-0 Forest, 3-0 Lille), only 2-2 at Bayern blotting it.
History
No meaningful recent history: Arsenal's own website confirms this Carabao Cup fourth-round tie at Highbury Stadium is the "first-ever competitive meeting" between the clubs, so h2h_meetings is empty. The two are not near-equals: Arsenal are the reigning Premier League champions and 2025-26 League Cup finalists, while Fleetwood are a League Two (fourth-tier) side, albeit in good cup form — their run to the last 16 is a club first, with three clean sheets (1-0 Chesterfield, 4-0 Shrewsbury, 1-0 Sh…
The competition
Carabao Cup (EFL Cup) 2026-27, fourth round (last 16), single leg at Highbury Stadium — League Two Fleetwood Town (18th, 14 pts from 13) host Premier League champions Arsenal (2nd, level on 21 pts with Man City after 8). Fleetwood beat Championship Sheffield United 1-0 in round three; Arsenal won 4-2 at Ipswich. Huge level gap (tier 4 v tier 1); Arsenal's congested Premier League/Champions League schedule makes rotation likely, and Fleetwood sit mid-table with no league urgency — a cup giant-ki…

Team news

Fleetwood Town
  • Lewis McCann — out (mid)
  • Kane Thompson-Sommers — out (mid)
  • Andy Cannon — out (mid)
Arsenal
  • Bukayo Saka — out (fwd)
  • William Saliba — out (def)
  • Christos Tzolis — out (fwd)
  • Riccardo Calafiori — doubtful (def)

English Football League Cup table

English Football League Cup standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Salford City12—25
2Barnet10—21
3Crewe Alexandra12—21
4Walsall11—19
5Cheltenham Town12—18
6York City11—17

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal prediction?

We project 0–2. Our model gives Fleetwood Town 10%, the draw 16% and Arsenal 74%.

What is the best bet for Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?

Our tip is Full time result · Arsenal at 1.13. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal kick off?

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal kicks off at Tue 20:00 in the English Football League Cup.

Who is out for Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal?

Reported absences: Bukayo Saka (out), William Saliba (out), Christos Tzolis (out), Riccardo Calafiori (doubtful), Lewis McCann (out), Kane Thompson-Sommers (out), Andy Cannon (out).

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.