Lorient vs Brest prediction, tips and odds
- even match
- low scoring
- cagey
- weakened side
- Derby
- league
- Lorient: normal
- Brest: normal
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- French Ligue 1
Our prediction
Panos Katseris (out), Bandiougou Fadiga (doubtful), Noah Mbamba (out), Mohamed Bamba (out)
Brendan Chardonnet (out), Raphaël Le Guen (out), Giovani Versini (doubtful), Romain Cagnon (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 3.2goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 3/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 4/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Brest come throughOur pickDraw or Away1.64
- Lorient come throughOur pickLorient · Draw no betPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 0–19%
- Projected goals
- 2.5
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–033%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.82
| Stat | LOR | BRE | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.41 | 1.35 | 1.12 | 2.5 |
| ShotsLeague 12.3 | 11.3 | 14.0 | 25.3 |
| Shots on targetLeague 4.3 | 3.91 | 4.66 | 8.6 |
| CornersLeague 4.75 | 4.12 | 4.96 | 9.1 |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 13.5 | 25.4 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | LOR | BRE |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Clean sheets | 3/5 | 0/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 1/5 |
- LBrest 2–0 Lorient2026-02-07 · Ligue 1 (matchday 21)2 gls
- DLorient 3–3 Brest2025-10-19 · Ligue 1 (matchday 8)6 gls
- LLorient 0–1 Brest2024-03-31 · Ligue 1 (matchday 27)1 gls
- LBrest 4–0 Lorient2023-12-20 · Ligue 1 (matchday 17)4 gls
- WLorient 2–1 Brest2023-05-07 · Ligue 1 (matchday 34)3 gls
Match context
- Form
- Lorient DWWLD but ultra-low-scoring — three 0-0/1-0 wins and just 5 goals in 5 league games, current run DWWD unbeaten; Brest LDWLL, 8 goals conceded in 5 but a 5-1 rout of Angers and both teams scoring in 4 of 5.
- History
- Breton derby between near-equals: Lorient and Brest have met regularly in Ligue 1 for the last 15 years and overall the record is close (aggregators put it around 34 meetings, 13-8-13). Recent league meetings tilt slightly to Brest: Brest 2-0 Lorient (Feb 2026), Lorient 3-3 Brest (Oct 2025), Lorient 0-1 Brest (Mar 2024), Brest 4-0 Lorient (Dec 2023), then Lorient 2-1 (May 2023) and Lorient 2-1 away at Brest (Oct 2022). So four of the last six league games had a winner and two of the last five p…
- The competition
- Ligue 1 2026-27, ordinary league round — Matchweek 9, 18-club French top flight (Mon 2 Nov, moved from 31 Oct at the Morbihan prefecture's request). Both sides are mid-table with nothing decided: Lorient 10th on 12 pts from 8 games (W3 D3 L2, GF7/GA6) after 0-0 at Angers; Brest 14th on 9 pts from 8 (W2 D3 L3, GF14/GA12) after a 1-2 home loss to Nice. On file end-of-season rows (Lorient 10th, 45 pts; Brest 12th, 39 pts) also put neither in a title, European or relegation fight — a mid-table Bret…
Team news
- Panos Katseris — out (def)
- Bandiougou Fadiga — doubtful (mid)
- Noah Mbamba — out (unknown)
- Mohamed Bamba — out (fwd)
- Brendan Chardonnet — out (def)
- Raphaël Le Guen — out (def)
- Giovani Versini — doubtful (unknown)
- Romain Cagnon — out (unknown)
French Ligue 1 table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 34 | — | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | — | 70 |
| 3 | Lille | 34 | — | 61 |
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | — | 60 |
| 5 | Marseille | 34 | — | 59 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | — | 59 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Esteban LepaulRennes21 goals
- 2Mason GreenwoodMarseille16 goals
- 3Joaquin PanichelliStrasbourg13 goals
- 4Odsonne ÉdouardLens12 goals
- 5Lassine SinayokoAuxerre12 goals
- 1Adrien ThomassonLens9 assists
- 2Ludovic AjorqueBrest9 assists
- 3Matthieu UdolLens7 assists
- 4Afonso MoreiraLyon7 assists
- 5Mason GreenwoodMarseille7 assists
- 1Berke ÖzerLille13 clean sheets
- 2Dominik GreifLyon11 clean sheets
- 3Hervé KoffiAngers10 clean sheets
- 4Lucas ChevalierParis Saint-Germain9 clean sheets
FBref 2025-26 Ligue 1 goals/assists/keeper clean sheets; scorers also ESPN/TNT as of season end, May 2026.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our Lorient vs Brest prediction?
We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Lorient 39%, the draw 30% and Brest 31%.
What is the best bet for Lorient vs Brest?
Our tip is Draw or Away at 1.64. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Lorient vs Brest kick off?
Lorient vs Brest kicks off at Mon 19:45 in the French Ligue 1.
Who is out for Lorient vs Brest?
Reported absences: Brendan Chardonnet (out), Raphaël Le Guen (out), Giovani Versini (doubtful), Romain Cagnon (out), Panos Katseris (out), Bandiougou Fadiga (doubtful), Noah Mbamba (out), Mohamed Bamba (out).
What happened the last time Lorient vs Brest met?
Brest 2–0 Lorient (2026-02-07 · Ligue 1 (matchday 21)). Over their last 6 meetings it is 2 wins for Lorient, 1 draw and 3 for Brest.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.