Skip to content
sugardice
Italian Serie A

AC Monza vs Napoli prediction, tips and odds

Monza's games average 4.12 goals and Napoli have won the last three meetings, but the visitors arrive without Buongiorno, Badiashile and Spinazzola and with Allegri banned from the bench.
  • goals fest
  • high ceiling
  • one sided
  • weakened side
  • high stakes
  • league
  • AC Monza: normal
  • Napoli: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Italian Serie A

Our prediction

AC Monza
FormL, W, L, W, L

Matteo Pessina (out), Jan Ziolkowski (out), Yvan Maye (doubtful)

Napoli
2nd · 76 pts
FormD, W, L, L, W

Benoit Badiashile (out), Leonardo Spinazzola (out), Alessandro Buongiorno (out), David Neres (doubtful), Alisson Santos (out), Costantino Favasuli (out)

Our prediction
1–13.1 goals projected
AC 35%Draw 24%NAP 41%
goals per meeting
2.5goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
1/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Napoli come throughOur pickNapoli
    1.82
  • AC Monza keep it closeOur pickAC Monza starts 2 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
AC 35%Draw 24%NAP 41%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–111%
  • 1–29%
  • 2–18%
Projected goals
3.1
Likeliest at half time
0–025%
Competition goals a game
2.43
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for AC Monza against Napoli
StatAC NAPTotal
GoalsLeague 1.211.471.613.1
Expected goals (xG)League 1.31.411.522.9
Corners5.075.410.5
Fouls9.8310.019.8

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
AC MonzaL, W, L, W, L
NapoliD, W, L, L, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendAC NAP
Over 2.5 goals5/53/5
Both teams scored4/53/5
Clean sheets1/51/5
Failed to score0/51/5
Head-to-head · last 6
1
AC wins
1
Draws
4
NAP wins
  • LAC Monza 0–1 Napoli2025-04-19 · Serie A1 gls
  • LNapoli 2–0 AC Monza2024-09-29 · Serie A2 gls
  • LAC Monza 2–4 Napoli2024-04-07 · Serie A6 gls
  • DNapoli 0–0 AC Monza2023-12-29 · Serie A0 gls
  • WAC Monza 2–0 Napoli2023-05-14 · Serie A2 gls
2.5goals per meeting1/6with both teams scoring2/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Monza LWLWL: four-goal home win over Cagliari (4-0) the bright spot, but heavy losses at Torino (2-3), Lazio (1-3) and Lecce (2-3); 15 goals scored/18 conceded in 8 games. Napoli WLLWD: 3-3 with Roma and a 4-3 UCL win over Bodø/Glimt, but shut out at Venezia (0-1) and beaten at…
History
Six Serie A league meetings, closely matched on aggregate: Monza 1 win, 1 draw, 4 Napoli wins (Monza 4, Napoli 11). Most recent: Napoli won 1-0 at Monza (Apr 2025, HT 0-0), 2-0 at home (Sep 2024, HT 2-0), Monza 2-4 Napoli at Monza (Apr 2024, HT 1-0 to Monza), 0-0 in Naples (Dec 2023), Monza 2-0 (May 2023), Napoli 4-0 (Aug 2022). Four of the six finished with three-plus goals; only one had both teams scoring. Three straight Napoli wins in the fixture. Stature: Monza are a small club just back in…
The competition
Italian Serie A 2026/27, ordinary league round (Matchweek 9) at the U-Power Stadium (Stadio Brianteo), a Wednesday-night fixture. Neither side is where the (on-file) final table had them: this is early-season, and Monza sit 15th with 7 points from 8 games (W2 D1 L5, GF15/GA18) — just above the drop zone, so points matter for survival. Napoli are 10th with 11 points (W3 D2 L3, 13/10), already well behind leaders Inter (22 pts) and scrapping to stay in the European race after a poor start; Allegr…

Team news

AC Monza
  • Matteo Pessina — out (mid)
  • Jan Ziolkowski — out (def)
  • Yvan Maye — doubtful (unknown)
Napoli
  • Benoit Badiashile — out (def)
  • Leonardo Spinazzola — out (def)
  • Alessandro Buongiorno — out (def)
  • David Neres — doubtful (fwd)
  • Alisson Santos — out (fwd)
  • Costantino Favasuli — out (mid)

Italian Serie A table and leaders

Italian Serie A standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Inter38—87
2Napoli38—76
3Roma38—73
4Como38—71
5Milan38—70
6Juventus38—69

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Lautaro MartínezInter17 goals
  2. 2Anastasios DouvikasComo14 goals
  3. 3Doyell MalenRoma14 goals
  4. 4Marcus ThuramInter13 goals
  5. 5Nico PazComo12 goals

Scorers: matchcalendar/FBref final 2025-26 list; assists: FBref season summary; clean sheets: FBref/StatMuse 2025-26 keeper table.

More tips this week

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our AC Monza vs Napoli prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives AC Monza 35%, the draw 24% and Napoli 41%.

What is the best bet for AC Monza vs Napoli?

Our tip is Full time result · Napoli at 1.82. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does AC Monza vs Napoli kick off?

AC Monza vs Napoli kicks off at Wed 19:45 in the Italian Serie A.

Who is out for AC Monza vs Napoli?

Reported absences: Benoit Badiashile (out), Leonardo Spinazzola (out), Alessandro Buongiorno (out), David Neres (doubtful), Alisson Santos (out), Costantino Favasuli (out), Matteo Pessina (out), Jan Ziolkowski (out), Yvan Maye (doubtful).

What happened the last time AC Monza vs Napoli met?

AC Monza 0–1 Napoli (2025-04-19 · Serie A). Over their last 6 meetings it is 1 wins for AC Monza, 1 draw and 4 for Napoli.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.