Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction, tips and odds
- weakened side
- both score
- high ceiling
- high stakes
- no strong shape
- league
- Atletico Madrid: high
- Bayern Munich: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Champions League
- Referee
- François Letexier (FRA)
- 4.3 cards a game
Our prediction
Morten Hjulmand (out), Johnny Cardoso (out), Cristian Romero (doubtful), Koke (doubtful)
Luis Diaz (out), Jamal Musiala (out), Serge Gnabry (out), Ismael Saibari (out), Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 2.0goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 2/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 3.5 Goals1.06
- Atletico Madrid keep it closeOur pickAtletico Madrid starts 2.5 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
- Projected goals
- 2.6
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–031%
- Competition goals a game
- 3.47
| Stat | ATL | BAY | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.74 | 1.35 | 1.27 | 2.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 | 1.86 | 3.3 |
| Corners | 4.32 | 4.79 | 9.1 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | ATL | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 0/5 | 5/5 |
| Both teams scored | 1/5 | 5/5 |
| Clean sheets | 4/5 | 0/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 0/5 |
- DAtletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich2020-12-01 · UEFA Champions League group stage2 gls
- LBayern Munich 4–0 Atletico Madrid2020-10-22 · UEFA Champions League group stage4 gls
- LBayern Munich 1–0 Atletico Madrid2016-12-06 · UEFA Champions League group stage1 gls
- WAtletico Madrid 1–0 Bayern Munich2016-09-28 · UEFA Champions League group stage1 gls
- LBayern Munich 2–1 Atletico Madrid2016-05-03 · UEFA Champions League semi-final, 2nd leg3 gls
Match context
- Cool, dry, clear evening in Madrid (approx. 14-15C, no rain, light wind) - no conditions expected to affect play.
- Form
- Atleti WWDWW (last 5): three 1-0/2-0 shutouts plus a 1-1 in Stuttgart — tight, low-scoring, only 7 goals in 5. Bayern WDWDW: 19 goals in 5 (6-1, 6-1, 6-1 wins) but successive 2-2 draws vs Arsenal and Dortmund, both with first-half goals.
- History
- All eight competitive meetings have been in the Champions League (group/league phase and the 2016 semi-final); Bayern lead 4-2 with 2 draws per club and Bayern sources, though Bayern have never won in Madrid (0 wins in 3 away trips). Recent history is low-scoring and tight: 2020/21 group stage 4-0 Bayern in Munich, then 1-1 in Madrid (Müller 86' pen); 2016/17 group stage Atleti 1-0 in Madrid and Bayern 1-0 in Munich. These are near-equals at elite level — Atlético strong at home, Bayern the big…
- The competition
- UEFA Champions League 2026/27, league phase (36 teams, 8 rounds), Matchday 4 of 8 — an ordinary league-phase round, not a knockout leg. Both sides are comfortably in the top-eight qualifying places on file: Bayern are 2nd with 21 pts from 8 games (note: the file's 8-game rows cover the full phase; Bayern sit at 3 wins/1 draw after MD3, having just drawn 2-2 with Arsenal) and Atlético 14th with 13 pts. Atleti come in having won both home CL games (2-0 Man Utd, 4-0 not applicable) — actually home…
- Referee cards
- 4.3a game
- Atletico Madrid cards
- 2.2a game
- Bayern Munich cards
- 1.0a game
Team news
- Morten Hjulmand — out (mid)
- Johnny Cardoso — out (mid)
- Cristian Romero — doubtful (def)
- Koke — doubtful (mid)
- Luis Diaz — out (fwd)
- Jamal Musiala — out (mid)
- Serge Gnabry — out (fwd)
- Ismael Saibari — out (mid)
- Bara Sapoko Ndiaye — out (unknown)
UEFA Champions League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | — | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | — | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | — | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | — | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | — | 16 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Kylian MbappéReal Madrid15 goals
- 2Harry KaneBayern München14 goals
- 3Julián ÁlvarezAtlético Madrid10 goals
- 4Anthony GordonNewcastle United10 goals
- 5Khvicha KvaratskheliaParis Saint-Germain10 goals
- 1Michael OliseBayern München8 assists
- 2Vinícius JúniorReal Madrid8 assists
- 3Achraf HakimiParis Saint-Germain6 assists
- 4Khvicha KvaratskheliaParis Saint-Germain6 assists
- 5Leandro TrossardArsenal5 assists
- 6Antoine GriezmannAtlético Madrid5 assists
- 1David RayaArsenal9 clean sheets
- 2Guglielmo VicarioTottenham Hotspur6 clean sheets
- 3Anatoliy TrubinBenfica4 clean sheets
UEFA.com season stats + top scorer/assist articles; clean sheets via UEFA/Fox Sports keeper table
More UEFA Champions League tips this weekend
- Galatasaray vs Stuttgart · Half time · Under 3.5 Goals1.08
- Shakhtar vs Sporting Lisbon · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.07
- LASK Linz vs Slovan Bratislava · Full time result · LASK Linz1.42
- Feyenoord vs Inter · Half time · Under 2.5 Goals1.25
- Man Utd vs Roma · Roma · Draw no bet2.24
- Bodo Glimt vs Lille · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.12
Frequently asked questions
What is our Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich prediction?
We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Atletico Madrid 35%, the draw 25% and Bayern Munich 40%.
What is the best bet for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Our tip is Half time · Under 3.5 Goals at 1.06.
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich kicks off at Tue 20:00 in the UEFA Champions League.
Who is out for Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Reported absences: Luis Diaz (out), Jamal Musiala (out), Serge Gnabry (out), Ismael Saibari (out), Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (out), Morten Hjulmand (out), Johnny Cardoso (out), Cristian Romero (doubtful), Koke (doubtful).
What happened the last time Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich met?
Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich (2020-12-01 · UEFA Champions League group stage). Over their last 6 meetings it is 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 draw and 3 for Bayern Munich.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.