Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction, tips and odds
- league
- Fiorentina: must win
- Atalanta: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- Italian Serie A
Our prediction
Luca Ranieri (doubtful), Marin Pongracic (doubtful), Fabiano Parisi (out), Arthur Atta (out), Riccardo Sottil (out)
Raoul Bellanova (out), Gianluca Scamacca (out), Sead Kolasinac (out), Odilon Kossounou (out), Isak Hien (out)
- goals per meeting
- 2.7goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 3/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Goals keep comingOur pickOver 1.5 Goals1.21
- Fiorentina come throughOur pickHome or DrawPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 1–28%
- Projected goals
- 3.3
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–023%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.43
| Stat | FIO | ATA | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.21 | 1.77 | 1.52 | 3.3 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 4.93 | 4.26 | 9.2 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | FIO | ATA |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 4/5 |
| Both teams scored | 5/5 | 4/5 |
| Clean sheets | 0/5 | 0/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 1/5 |
- DFiorentina 1–1 Atalanta2026-05-22 · Serie A2 gls
- LAtalanta 2–0 Fiorentina2025-11-30 · Serie A2 gls
- WFiorentina 1–0 Atalanta2025-03-30 · Serie A1 gls
- LAtalanta 3–2 Fiorentina2024-09-15 · Serie A5 gls
- WAtalanta 2–3 Fiorentina2024-06-02 · Serie A5 gls
Match context
- Form
- Fiorentina in freefall: lost 4 of last 5 incl. 2-1 at Inter and 3-1 home to Como, only a 4-2 win at Venezia; Atalanta wildly inconsistent: won 3-1 v Venezia and 1-0 v Bologna but lost at Milan and Cagliari and drew 4-4 with Frosinone, plus 2-0 at Ajax in Europe.
- History
- These two have met constantly in Serie A, and it's a fixture that swings. Of the last six league meetings (2023-24 to 2025-26), Fiorentina won three, Atalanta two, with the most recent (Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta, 22 May 2026) drawn — and Fiorentina won the reverse 1-0 in Bergamo in March 2025 and 2-0 there in Nov 2025? No: Atalanta 2-0 Fiorentina, November 2025. On stature they are not equals in 2026-27: Atalanta finished 59-point, 4th-placed side in 2025-26 while Fiorentina (42 pts) had their wo…
- The competition
- Serie A 2026-27, Italy's top flight — ordinary midweek league round (matchweek 9, Thu 29 Oct). Both sides are in a bad way: Fiorentina sit 18th/19th on 4 points from 8 (1W 1D 6L, 9 GF / 19 GA), already in the relegation zone and playing for survival and a reaction; Atalanta are 11th on 10 points from 8 (3W 1D 4L) after a chaotic 4-4 at home to Frosinone and a 2-0 Conference League defeat at Ajax four days earlier, so they are fighting for a foothold in the top half rather than the title race. N…
Team news
- Luca Ranieri — doubtful (def)
- Marin Pongracic — doubtful (def)
- Fabiano Parisi — out (def)
- Arthur Atta — out (mid)
- Riccardo Sottil — out (fwd)
- Raoul Bellanova — out (def)
- Gianluca Scamacca — out (fwd)
- Sead Kolasinac — out (def)
- Odilon Kossounou — out (def)
- Isak Hien — out (def)
Italian Serie A table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | — | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | — | 76 |
| 3 | Roma | 38 | — | 73 |
| 4 | Como | 38 | — | 71 |
| 5 | Milan | 38 | — | 70 |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | — | 69 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Lautaro MartínezInter17 goals
- 2Anastasios DouvikasComo14 goals
- 3Doyell MalenRoma14 goals
- 4Marcus ThuramInter13 goals
- 5Nico PazComo12 goals
- 1Federico DimarcoInter16 assists
- 1Jean ButezComo19 clean sheets
- 2Mile SvilarRoma18 clean sheets
Scorers: matchcalendar/FBref final 2025-26 list; assists: FBref season summary; clean sheets: FBref/StatMuse 2025-26 keeper table.
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Frequently asked questions
What is our Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction?
We project 1–1. Our model gives Fiorentina 44%, the draw 23% and Atalanta 33%.
What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our tip is Full time · Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21.
What time does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicks off at Thu 19:45 in the Italian Serie A.
Who is out for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Reported absences: Luca Ranieri (doubtful), Marin Pongracic (doubtful), Fabiano Parisi (out), Arthur Atta (out), Riccardo Sottil (out), Raoul Bellanova (out), Gianluca Scamacca (out), Sead Kolasinac (out), Odilon Kossounou (out), Isak Hien (out).
What happened the last time Fiorentina vs Atalanta met?
Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta (2026-05-22 · Serie A). Over their last 6 meetings it is 3 wins for Fiorentina, 1 draw and 2 for Atalanta.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.