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German Bundesliga

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction, tips and odds

Bayern, top on 14 points and unbeaten, chase a title-race win at a Freiburg side third on 13 — but take a patched squad missing Neuer, Kimmich, Musiala and Díaz, with assistant Aaron Danks in charge.
  • goals fest
  • high ceiling
  • weakened side
  • high stakes
  • one sided
  • league
  • Freiburg: normal
  • Bayern Munich: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
German Bundesliga

Our prediction

Freiburg
3rd · 13 pts
FormL, L, W, W, W

Florent Muslija (out), Bruno Ogbus (out), Berkay Yılmaz (out)

Bayern Munich
1st · 14 pts
FormD, W, D, D, W

Manuel Neuer (out), Joshua Kimmich (out), Jamal Musiala (out), Luis Díaz (out), Kim Min-jae (out), Aleksandar Pavlović (out)

Our prediction
1–13.6 goals projected
FRE 33%Draw 22%BAY 45%
goals per meeting
4.6goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
4/5with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
4/5over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Bayern Munich come throughOur pickBayern Munich
    1.45
  • Freiburg keep it closeOur pickFreiburg starts 4 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
FRE 33%Draw 22%BAY 45%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–19%
  • 1–29%
  • 2–17%
Projected goals
3.6
Likeliest at half time
0–020%
Competition goals a game
3.71
Competition matches over 2.5
74%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Freiburg against Bayern Munich
StatFREBAYTotal
Goals1.631.943.6
Expected goals (xG)1.511.843.4
Corners4.385.49.8

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
FreiburgL, L, W, W, W
Bayern MunichD, W, D, D, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendFREBAY
Over 2.5 goals4/55/5
Both teams scored3/55/5
Clean sheets1/50/5
Failed to score1/50/5
Head-to-head · last 5
0
FRE wins
0
Draws
5
BAY wins
  • LBayern Munich 4–1 Freiburg2026-09-06 · Bundesliga5 gls
  • LFreiburg 2–3 Bayern Munich2026-04 · Bundesliga5 gls
  • LBayern Munich 6–2 Freiburg2025-11-22 · Bundesliga8 gls
  • LFreiburg 1–2 Bayern Munich2025-01-25 · Bundesliga3 gls
  • LBayern Munich 2–0 Freiburg2024-09-01 · Bundesliga2 gls
4.6goals per meeting4/5with both teams scoring4/5over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Freiburg: two straight losses (0-3 Monaco a, 1-2 Leverkusen a) after three wins, 15:6 in 6 league games, unbeaten at home; Bayern unbeaten (4-2-0, 22:5), 6-1 v Leipzig but held 2-2 at Augsburg and by Arsenal/Viking, away form is the soft spot.
History
Bundesliga rivalry, entirely one-sided: Freiburg last beat Bayern in May 2015, and Bayern have won 13 of the 17 meetings since (per bundesliga.com). Recent league results: Bayern 4-1 Freiburg (Sep 2026, HT 2-0), Freiburg 2-3 Bayern (Apr 2026), Bayern 6-2 Freiburg (Nov 2025, HT 2-2), Freiburg 1-2 Bayern (Jan 2025), Bayern 2-0 Freiburg (Sep 2024). Freiburg are a well-drilled top-half side (3rd, 13 pts after 6 games this season) but far smaller; Bayern are champions and leaders (1st, 14 pts). Game…
The competition
German Bundesliga 2026/27, national top flight (tier 1), ordinary Matchday 7 league round at Europa-Park Stadion. Bayern lead the table on 14 pts (4-2-0, 22:5), only ahead of Dortmund on goal difference; Freiburg are 3rd on 13 pts (4-1-1, 15:6) after their first league defeat of the season (1-2 at Leverkusen). A title-race/early-top-of-table clash: Bayern can stay top, Freiburg can go level/top with a win. Both played midweek in Europe (Bayern 2-2 v Arsenal, Freiburg 0-3 at Monaco).

Team news

Freiburg
  • Florent Muslija — out (mid)
  • Bruno Ogbus — out (def)
  • Berkay Yılmaz — out (def)
Bayern Munich
  • Manuel Neuer — out (gk)
  • Joshua Kimmich — out (mid)
  • Jamal Musiala — out (mid)
  • Luis Díaz — out (fwd)
  • Kim Min-jae — out (def)
  • Aleksandar Pavlović — out (mid)

German Bundesliga table and leaders

German Bundesliga standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Bayern Munich6—14
2Borussia Dortmund6—14
3Freiburg6—13
4Bayer Leverkusen6—13
5Mainz 056—10
6Elversberg6—10

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Niclas FüllkrugWerder Bremen6 goals
  2. 2Patrik SchickBayer Leverkusen6 goals
  3. 3Michael OliseBayern Munich5 goals
  4. 4Younes EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt5 goals
  5. 5Phillip TietzMainz 055 goals

DFB Datencenter top-scorer page + bundesliga.com stats, as of 17-21 Oct 2026; no usable assists/clean-sheet table seen, left empty.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Freiburg 33%, the draw 22% and Bayern Munich 45%.

What is the best bet for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?

Our tip is Full time result · Bayern Munich at 1.45. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Freiburg vs Bayern Munich kick off?

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich kicks off at Sun 16:30 in the German Bundesliga.

Who is out for Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?

Reported absences: Manuel Neuer (out), Joshua Kimmich (out), Jamal Musiala (out), Luis Díaz (out), Kim Min-jae (out), Aleksandar Pavlović (out), Florent Muslija (out), Bruno Ogbus (out), Berkay Yılmaz (out).

What happened the last time Freiburg vs Bayern Munich met?

Bayern Munich 4–1 Freiburg (2026-09-06 · Bundesliga). Over their last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Freiburg, 0 draws and 5 for Bayern Munich.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.