Skip to content
sugardice
French Ligue 1

Marseille vs Le Havre prediction, tips and odds

Winless, bottom-placed Le Havre visit a Marseille side that has beaten them 12 straight times, with Genesio demanding a reaction after Thursday's Europa League defeat.
  • one sided
  • goals fest
  • high ceiling
  • high stakes
  • league
  • Marseille: normal
  • Le Havre: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
French Ligue 1

Our prediction

Marseille
10th · 9 pts
FormL, W, W, L, L

Derek Cornelius (out), Alexi Koum (doubtful), Geoffrey Kondogbia (out)

Le Havre
18th · 2 pts
FormL, L, L, D, L

Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (out), Stephan Zagadou (out), Timothee Pembele (doubtful), Elias Jelert (doubtful), Felix Mambimbi (out)

Our prediction
2–03.2 goals projected
MAR 68%Draw 18%LE 14%
goals per meeting
4.2goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
4/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
5/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
1–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Marseille come throughOur pickMarseille
    1.57
  • Marseille avoid defeatOur pickMarseille starts 1 goal ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
MAR 68%Draw 18%LE 14%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 2–011%
  • 2–110%
  • 1–09%
Projected goals
3.2
Likeliest at half time
1–024%
Competition goals a game
3.05
Competition matches over 2.5
63%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Marseille against Le Havre
StatMARLE Total
Goals2.270.923.2
Corners4.734.979.7

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
MarseilleL, W, W, L, L
Le HavreL, L, L, D, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendMARLE
Over 2.5 goals2/53/5
Both teams scored2/53/5
Clean sheets1/51/5
Failed to score2/52/5
Head-to-head · last 6
6
MAR wins
0
Draws
0
LE wins
  • WLe Havre 0–1 Marseille2026-05-10 · Ligue 11 gls
  • WMarseille 6–2 Le Havre2025-10-18 · Ligue 18 gls
  • WLe Havre 1–3 Marseille2025-05-10 · Ligue 14 gls
  • WMarseille 5–1 Le Havre2025-01-05 · Ligue 16 gls
  • WLe Havre 1–2 Marseille2024-05-19 · Ligue 13 gls
4.2goals per meeting4/6with both teams scoring5/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Marseille WLWW: 5-2 at Angers, 0-1 loss at Sturm Graz (Europa League), 2-0 at Troyes, 1-0 loss at Rennes; Le Havre LLDLL: 1-3 v Auxerre, 0-1 at Lille, 2-3 at Toulouse, 0-0 v Angers, 1-2 v Brest — winless and scoring under a goal a game.
History
Strictly a mismatch in stature: Marseille (UCL-level, 2nd in 2024-25, ~64k at the Vélodrome) vs a Le Havre side that per pre-match previews is winless and 18th in 2026-27. Antosofa counts 20 meetings since 1993: Le Havre 0 wins, 6 draws, Marseille 14, with OM winning the last 11. All recent league meetings were comfortable Marseille wins: 6-2 (Oct 2025, HT 1-1), 1-3 at Le Havre (May 2025, HT 0-0), 5-1 (Jan 2025, HT 3-0), 1-2 at Le Havre (May 2024), 3-0 (Oct 2023). Ceiling high, floor low: home…
The competition
French Ligue 1 2026-27 (89th season of France's national top flight, 18 clubs, 34 rounds), an ordinary league round (Matchday 8) at the Vélodrome. After 7 rounds Lyon, PSG, Paris FC, Lille and Monaco are level on 14 points; Marseille sit mid-table (10th, 3W-0D-4L, 14 GF-10 GA) and Le Havre are last (18th, 0W-2D-5L, 5 GF-11 GA, 2 pts). Marseille chase the European places under new coach Bruno Genesio; Le Havre are in an early relegation fight — neither is a dead rubber. Marseille have European c…

Team news

Marseille
  • Derek Cornelius — out (def)
  • Alexi Koum — doubtful (unknown)
  • Geoffrey Kondogbia — out (mid)
Le Havre
  • Lionel Mpasi-Nzau — out (gk)
  • Stephan Zagadou — out (def)
  • Timothee Pembele — doubtful (def)
  • Elias Jelert — doubtful (def)
  • Felix Mambimbi — out (fwd)

French Ligue 1 table

French Ligue 1 standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Lyon7—14
2Paris Saint-Germain7—14
3Paris FC7—14
4Lille7—14
5Monaco7—14
7Lorient7—11

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

More tips this week

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Marseille vs Le Havre prediction?

We project 2–0. Our model gives Marseille 68%, the draw 18% and Le Havre 14%.

What is the best bet for Marseille vs Le Havre?

Our tip is Full time result · Marseille at 1.57. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Marseille vs Le Havre kick off?

Marseille vs Le Havre kicks off at Sun 16:15 in the French Ligue 1.

Who is out for Marseille vs Le Havre?

Reported absences: Derek Cornelius (out), Alexi Koum (doubtful), Geoffrey Kondogbia (out), Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (out), Stephan Zagadou (out), Timothee Pembele (doubtful), Elias Jelert (doubtful), Felix Mambimbi (out).

What happened the last time Marseille vs Le Havre met?

Le Havre 0–1 Marseille (2026-05-10 · Ligue 1). Over their last 6 meetings it is 6 wins for Marseille, 0 draws and 0 for Le Havre.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.