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French Ligue 1

Monaco vs Lille prediction, tips and odds

Two identical 14-point records, an extraordinary five-way tie for first, and a fixture that has produced six goals in five league meetings — Monaco host Lille with top spot on the line.
  • even match
  • slow start
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • league
  • Monaco: high
  • Lille: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
French Ligue 1

Our prediction

Monaco
5th · 14 pts
FormW, L, D, W, D

Eric Dier (out), Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo (out)

Lille
4th · 14 pts
FormL, D, L, W, L

Tiago Santos (out), Ayase Ueda (out), Osame Sahraoui (doubtful), Ethan Mbappé (out), Hamza Igamane (out)

Our prediction
1–02.7 goals projected
MON 56%Draw 24%LIL 20%
goals per meeting
1.3goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
1/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
1/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Monaco come throughOur pickMonaco
    2.04
  • Monaco avoid defeatOur pickMonaco starts 1.5 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
MON 56%Draw 24%LIL 20%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–012%
  • 1–111%
  • 2–010%
Projected goals
2.7
Likeliest at half time
0–030%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Monaco against Lille
StatMONLILTotal
Goals1.720.932.6
Expected goals (xG)1.451.412.9
Corners4.264.498.8
Fouls12.211.123.2

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
MonacoW, L, D, W, D
LilleL, D, L, W, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendMONLIL
Over 2.5 goals3/53/5
Both teams scored3/53/5
Clean sheets1/51/5
Failed to score1/51/5
Head-to-head · last 6
1
MON wins
1
Draws
4
LIL wins
  • LMonaco 0–1 Lille2026-05-10 · Ligue 11 gls
  • LLille 1–0 Monaco2025-08-24 · Ligue 11 gls
  • LLille 2–1 Monaco2025-02-22 · Ligue 13 gls
  • DMonaco 0–0 Lille2024-10-18 · Ligue 10 gls
  • WMonaco 1–0 Lille2024-04-24 · Ligue 11 gls
1.3goals per meeting1/6with both teams scoring1/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

  • Fox Sports forecast for Fontvieille on matchday: partly cloudy, ~60°F, wind 9 mph NW
Form
Monaco: W-W-D-L-W across Ligue 1 and Europe — beat PSG 2-1 away, drew 2-2 with Toulouse after leading 2-0, lost 1-0 at Lorient, then won 3-0 at home in Europe; only 10 goals in 7 league games. Lille: Ligue 1 D-W-L-W plus heavy European losses (0-3 Arsenal, 2-4 Galatasaray); 10 s…
History
Monaco and Lille are near-equals in stature — both regular Ligue 1 European contenders. The two leaguemeetings preceding this fixture were both won 1-0 by the away side: Lille won 0-1 at Stade Louis II in May 2026 and 1-0 at home in August 2025. Both were 0-0 at half-time, as were Monaco 0-0 Lille (Oct 2024) and Monaco 1-0 Lille (Apr 2024). Lille 2-0 Monaco (Oct 2023) was 2-0 at the break. Five straight Ligue 1 meetings produced just six goals total, with only one going over 2.5.
The competition
French Ligue 1 (Ligue 1 McDonald's), 2026-27 season, national top flight (tier 1, 18 clubs). This is an ordinary league round — matchday 8, played Sun 25 Oct 2026 at the Stade Louis-II. After matchday 7 the top of the table is extraordinarily tight: Lyon, PSG, Paris FC, Lille and Monaco are ALL level on 14 points, separated only by goal difference (Lyon +8, PSG +5, Paris FC +5, Lille +5, Monaco +4). Both sides are therefore playing for the outright lead of the division, not a dead rubber. Monac…

Team news

Monaco
  • Eric Dier — out (def)
  • Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo — out (mid)
Lille
  • Tiago Santos — out (def)
  • Ayase Ueda — out (fwd)
  • Osame Sahraoui — doubtful (fwd)
  • Ethan Mbappé — out (fwd)
  • Hamza Igamane — out (fwd)

French Ligue 1 table

French Ligue 1 standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Lyon7—14
2Paris Saint-Germain7—14
3Paris FC7—14
4Lille7—14
5Monaco7—14
7Lorient7—11

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Monaco vs Lille prediction?

We project 1–0. Our model gives Monaco 56%, the draw 24% and Lille 20%.

What is the best bet for Monaco vs Lille?

Our tip is Full time result · Monaco at 2.04. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Monaco vs Lille kick off?

Monaco vs Lille kicks off at Sun 14:00 in the French Ligue 1.

Who is out for Monaco vs Lille?

Reported absences: Eric Dier (out), Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo (out), Tiago Santos (out), Ayase Ueda (out), Osame Sahraoui (doubtful), Ethan Mbappé (out), Hamza Igamane (out).

What happened the last time Monaco vs Lille met?

Monaco 0–1 Lille (2026-05-10 · Ligue 1). Over their last 6 meetings it is 1 wins for Monaco, 1 draw and 4 for Lille.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.