New York City vs Atlanta Utd prediction, tips and odds
- goals fest
- both score
- no strong shape
- league
- New York City: must win
- Atlanta Utd: low
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- US MLS
Our prediction
Matt Freese (doubtful), Maxi Moralez (out), Keaton Parks (out), Kai Trewin (out), Arnau Farnós (out), Drew Baiera (out)
- goals per meeting
- 4.2goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 5/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 5/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- New York City come throughOur pickNew York City1.80
- Atlanta Utd keep it closeOur pickAtlanta Utd starts 2 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 1–110%
- 2–19%
- 1–07%
- Projected goals
- 3.2
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–023%
- Competition goals a game
- 3.25
| Stat | NEW | ATL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.36 | 3.2 |
| Expected goals (xG)League 1.56 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 3.0 |
| ShotsLeague 13.2 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 25.2 |
| Shots on targetLeague 5.3 | 4.61 | 4.5 | 9.1 |
| CornersLeague 5.0 | 5.07 | 4.88 | 9.9 |
| FoulsLeague 11.8 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 23.6 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | NEW | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3/5 | 4/4 |
| Both teams scored | 4/5 | 3/4 |
| Clean sheets | 0/5 | 1/4 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 0/4 |
- DAtlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC2026-09-26 · MLS4 gls
- WNew York City FC 4–0 Atlanta United FC2025-06-12 · MLS4 gls
- LAtlanta United FC 4–3 New York City FC2025-03-29 · MLS7 gls
- DAtlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC2024-07-17 · MLS4 gls
- DNew York City FC 1–1 Atlanta United FC2024-04-06 · MLS2 gls
Match context
- Partly cloudy, ~55-57F, 1% chance of rain, light wind at Citi Field
- Form
- NYCFC DDLDL (1-1 LAFC, 0-2 Miami, 1-2 Chicago, 2-2 Atlanta, 2-2 Orlando) — winless in 14ish, scoring twice at most but never keeping a clean sheet lately; Atlanta WLLDW (2-3 Chicago, 3-0 at Montreal, 1-3 Miami, 2-2 NYCFC) — scoring freely but leaking goals at both ends.
- History
- NYC and Atlanta are long-standing MLS Eastern Conference rivals with a heavy draw bias. Recent league meetings: Atlanta 2-2 NYC (2026), NYC 4-0 Atlanta and Atlanta 4-3 NYC (2025), NYC 1-1 Atlanta and Atlanta 2-2 NYC (2024). Over ~19-21 meetings NYC lead narrowly with around 6-8 wins, Atlanta 5-6, and 7-8 draws; roughly 3.3 goals/game and about 79% both-teams-scored. Both are mid-to-lower table in 2026 (NYC 12th, Atlanta 14th), so slight NYC favouritism is form/venue more than stature; neither i…
- The competition
- MLS regular season, penultimate midweek round (Wed 28 Oct 2026). Both clubs are out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture: NYCFC sit 12th on 35 pts (8-11-12, per ESPN/Orlando City records after 24 Oct) and are winless in 5 with one win in 14; Atlanta are 14th on 30 pts (8-17-6) and, per their own club preview, need points "to stay alive in the playoff race" — realistically a near-dead rubber. NYCFC are the nominal favourite (~55%) but are the division's form-flat side playing for pride; Atl…
Team news
- Matt Freese — doubtful (gk)
- Maxi Moralez — out (mid)
- Keaton Parks — out (mid)
- Kai Trewin — out (mid)
- Arnau Farnós — out (fwd)
- Drew Baiera — out (def)
- Will Reilly — out (mid)
US MLS table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | — | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | — | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami CF | 31 | — | 55 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | — | 54 |
| 5 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | — | 50 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | — | 38 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Lionel MessiInter Miami CF25 goals
- 2Petar MusaFC Dallas19 goals
- 1Son Heung-minLos Angeles FC15 assists
- 2Anders DreyerSan Diego FC14 assists
- 3Cristian EspinozaNashville SC13 assists
- 1Brian SchwakeNashville SC14 clean sheets
- 2Yohei TakaokaVancouver Whitecaps FC12 clean sheets
FOX Sports 2026 goalkeeping/assists stats, ESPN MLS 2026 stats, Wikipedia 2026 MLS season; as of Oct 25, 2026.
More tips this week
- Inter Miami CF vs FC Cincinnati · Full time result · Inter Miami CF1.54
- Charlotte FC vs CF Montreal · Full time result · Charlotte FC1.59
- New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls · Half time · Under 2.5 Goals1.24
- Toronto FC vs DC Utd · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.18
- Khaan Khuns Erchim vs Ulaangom City FC · Full time result · Khaan Khuns Erchim1.56
- Kedah FA U20 vs Penang FC U20 · Full time result · Kedah FA U201.93
Frequently asked questions
What is our New York City vs Atlanta Utd prediction?
We project 1–1. Our model gives New York City 50%, the draw 22% and Atlanta Utd 28%.
What is the best bet for New York City vs Atlanta Utd?
Our tip is Full time result · New York City at 1.80. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does New York City vs Atlanta Utd kick off?
New York City vs Atlanta Utd kicks off at Wed 23:30 in the US MLS.
Who is out for New York City vs Atlanta Utd?
Reported absences: Matt Freese (doubtful), Maxi Moralez (out), Keaton Parks (out), Kai Trewin (out), Arnau Farnós (out), Drew Baiera (out), Will Reilly (out).
What happened the last time New York City vs Atlanta Utd met?
Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC (2026-09-26 · MLS). Over their last 6 meetings it is 1 wins for New York City, 4 draws and 1 for Atlanta Utd.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.