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Spanish Copa del Rey

Numancia vs Oviedo prediction, tips and odds

A heavily rotated Oviedo, without first-choice keeper Escandell and both senior strikers, visit a Numancia side that has conceded just four goals in eight league games.
  • low scoring
  • slow start
  • rotation risk
  • weakened side
  • one sided
  • cup
  • Leg single
  • Numancia: high
  • Oviedo: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
Spanish Copa del Rey

Our prediction

Numancia
6th · 13 pts
FormL, D, D, D, W

Fran González (doubtful)

Oviedo
8th · 18 pts
FormD, W, W, L, W

Chris Ramos (out), Carlos Fernández (out), Juan Cruz (out), Aisar (out), Brandon Domingues (out), Aarón Escandell (out), David Costas (out), Youness (out)

Our prediction
1–12.5 goals projected
NUM 36%Draw 27%OVI 37%
goals per meeting
2.4goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
2/5with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/5over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Numancia keep it closeOur pickNumancia starts 2.5 goals ahead
    1.10
  • Somebody winsOur pickHome or Away
    Price hidden until revealed
Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
NUM 36%Draw 27%OVI 37%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–113%
  • 0–110%
  • 1–010%
Projected goals
2.5
Likeliest at half time
0–032%
Competition goals a game
2.69
Competition matches over 2.5
53%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Numancia against Oviedo
StatNUMOVITotal
Goals1.251.282.5

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
NumanciaL, D, D, D, W
OviedoD, W, W, L, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendNUMOVI
Over 2.5 goals1/54/5
Both teams scored2/54/5
Clean sheets3/51/5
Failed to score2/50/5
Head-to-head · last 5
2
NUM wins
1
Draws
2
OVI wins
  • WNumancia 1–0 Real Oviedo2020-06-28 · Segunda División1 gls
  • DReal Oviedo 1–1 Numancia2019-10-06 · Segunda División2 gls
  • LReal Oviedo 1–0 Numancia2019-05-19 · Segunda División1 gls
  • LNumancia 2–3 Real Oviedo2019-01-07 · Segunda División5 gls
  • WNumancia 3–0 Real Oviedo2018-04-29 · Segunda División3 gls
2.4goals per meeting2/5with both teams scoring2/5over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Oviedo WLWWD in LaLiga 2 (2-0 v Gijón, 1-4 at Eldense, 3-1 v Eibar, 2-1 at Ceuta, 2-2 at Almería) — scoring but leaking. Numancia LDDDW in Segunda Federación, very low-scoring: 0-0 x2, 1-1, 1-0, 2-3.
History
All five most recent meetings are Segunda División (2018-2020): Numancia 1-0 Oviedo (Jun 2020), Oviedo 1-1 Numancia (Oct 2019), Oviedo 1-0 Numancia (May 2019), Numancia 2-3 Oviedo (Jan 2019), Numancia 3-0 Oviedo (Apr 2018). Tight, low-scoring series: 2 Numancia wins, 1 draw, 2 Oviedo wins; only one of those five went over 2.5 goals and BTTS landed in two of five. No Copa del Rey meeting found; the only other competitive link is prior La Liga meetings in 2000-01. Stature: Oviedo are the bigger c…
The competition
Copa del Rey 2026-27, first round (single match, no second leg) at Los Pajaritos, Soria. Numancia (Segunda Federación Group 5, Spanish fourth tier) sit ~6th after 8 games (13 pts, 8-4) and have just lost their first league game of the season 2-3 to Navalcarnero. Oviedo play in LaLiga Hypermotion (Segunda División, second tier), 8th-9th on 18 points from 11 and clearly the stronger side; they come off 2-3 wins in five league games. Classic cup mismatch: fourth tier at home vs second tier away, s…

Team news

Numancia
  • Fran González — doubtful (unknown)
Oviedo
  • Chris Ramos — out (fwd)
  • Carlos Fernández — out (fwd)
  • Juan Cruz — out (unknown)
  • Aisar — out (unknown)
  • Brandon Domingues — out (unknown)
  • Aarón Escandell — out (gk)
  • David Costas — out (def)
  • Youness — out (unknown)

Spanish Copa del Rey table

Spanish Copa del Rey standings
#ClubPLGDPts
8Real Oviedo11—18
6Numancia8—13
1Conquense8—17
2San Sebastián de los Reyes8—16
3Talavera CF8—15
4Real Valladolid B8—14

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Numancia vs Oviedo prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Numancia 36%, the draw 27% and Oviedo 37%.

What is the best bet for Numancia vs Oviedo?

Our tip is Numancia starts 2.5 goals ahead at 1.10.

What time does Numancia vs Oviedo kick off?

Numancia vs Oviedo kicks off at Thu 17:00 in the Spanish Copa del Rey.

Who is out for Numancia vs Oviedo?

Reported absences: Chris Ramos (out), Carlos Fernández (out), Juan Cruz (out), Aisar (out), Brandon Domingues (out), Aarón Escandell (out), David Costas (out), Youness (out), Fran González (doubtful).

What happened the last time Numancia vs Oviedo met?

Numancia 1–0 Real Oviedo (2020-06-28 · Segunda División). Over their last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Numancia, 1 draw and 2 for Oviedo.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.