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French Ligue 1

Paris St-G vs Lyon prediction, tips and odds

Level on 14 points, Lyon lead on goal difference at Parc des Princes — but PSG are without Kvaratskhelia, Dembele and Marquinhos, and Lyon without Openda and Sulc.
  • goals fest
  • high ceiling
  • both score
  • high stakes
  • weakened side
  • league
  • Paris St-G: high
  • Lyon: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
French Ligue 1

Our prediction

Paris St-G
2nd · 14 pts
FormW, W, W, W, L

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (out), Ousmane Dembele (out), Marquinhos (out), Nuno Mendes (out), Alessandro Longoni (doubtful)

Lyon
1st · 14 pts
FormW, L, W, D, W

Lois Openda (out), Pavel Sulc (out), Keito Nakamura (out), Mohamed Ouedraogo (out), Nicolas Tagliafico (doubtful)

Our prediction
1–02.8 goals projected
PAR 61%Draw 22%LYO 17%
goals per meeting
3.8goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
5/6with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
5/6over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Paris St-G come throughOur pickParis St-G
    1.37
  • Lyon keep it closeOur pickLyon starts 4 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

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How the model sees it

Result probability
PAR 61%Draw 22%LYO 17%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–012%
  • 2–011%
  • 1–110%
Projected goals
2.8
Likeliest at half time
0–029%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Paris St-G against Lyon
StatPARLYOTotal
Goals1.890.892.8
Expected goals (xG)1.731.533.3
Corners5.393.699.1

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
Paris St-GW, W, W, W, L
LyonW, L, W, D, W
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendPARLYO
Over 2.5 goals4/54/5
Both teams scored4/53/5
Clean sheets1/52/5
Failed to score0/51/5
Head-to-head · last 6
4
PAR wins
0
Draws
2
LYO wins
  • LParis Saint-Germain 1–2 Lyon2026-04-19 · Ligue 13 gls
  • WLyon 2–3 Paris Saint-Germain2025-11-09 · Ligue 15 gls
  • WLyon 2–3 Paris Saint-Germain2025-02-23 · Ligue 15 gls
  • WParis Saint-Germain 3–1 Lyon2024-12-15 · Ligue 14 gls
  • WParis Saint-Germain 4–1 Lyon2024-04-21 · Ligue 15 gls
3.8goals per meeting5/6with both teams scoring5/6over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
PSG WLWWW (loss to Monaco 1-2, then wins over Brest, Marseille, Le Mans, Strasbourg); Lyon WLWDW with 10 scored and 4 conceded in that run, including a 4-0 over Rennes.
History
These are not near-equals. PSG are the dominant side — Ligue 1 champions and reigning European champions, unbeaten run of seven straight wins into this fixture — while Lyon are a strong top-four challenger (joint top on 14 pts after 7 rounds in 2026-27). Recent LEAGUE meetings are remarkably close and high-scoring: Lyon beat PSG 2-1 at the Parc des Princes in April 2026 (HT 0-2), PSG won 3-2 at Lyon in Nov 2025 (HT 1-2), Lyon won 2-3... i.e. PSG 3-2 at Lyon — and PSG won 3-1 at home (Dec 2024)…
The competition
Ligue 1 2026-27 (French top flight, 18 clubs), an ordinary Matchweek 8 round — not a cup tie. Both sides are level on 14 points after 7 matches at the top of a tight table: Lyon 1st (4W 2D 1L, 13-5), PSG 2nd (4W 2D 1L, 14-9), with Lille and Monaco also on 14. A win puts either side top on its own; PSG are the home side and strong favourites, so this is a genuine early-season summit meeting. PSG come off a 3-1 win at Strasbourg in MW7 plus a CL trip to Man City; Lyon won 2-1 at home to Nice (MW7…

Team news

Paris St-G
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia — out (fwd)
  • Ousmane Dembele — out (fwd)
  • Marquinhos — out (def)
  • Nuno Mendes — out (def)
  • Alessandro Longoni — doubtful (gk)
Lyon
  • Lois Openda — out (fwd)
  • Pavel Sulc — out (mid)
  • Keito Nakamura — out (fwd)
  • Mohamed Ouedraogo — out (def)
  • Nicolas Tagliafico — doubtful (def)

French Ligue 1 table

French Ligue 1 standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Lyon7—14
2Paris St-G7—14
3Lille7—14
4Paris FC8—14
5Monaco7—14
6Lens8—13

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

More tips this week

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Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Paris St-G vs Lyon prediction?

We project 1–0. Our model gives Paris St-G 61%, the draw 22% and Lyon 17%.

What is the best bet for Paris St-G vs Lyon?

Our tip is Full time result · Paris St-G at 1.37. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Paris St-G vs Lyon kick off?

Paris St-G vs Lyon kicks off at Mon 19:30 in the French Ligue 1.

Who is out for Paris St-G vs Lyon?

Reported absences: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (out), Ousmane Dembele (out), Marquinhos (out), Nuno Mendes (out), Alessandro Longoni (doubtful), Lois Openda (out), Pavel Sulc (out), Keito Nakamura (out), Mohamed Ouedraogo (out), Nicolas Tagliafico (doubtful).

What happened the last time Paris St-G vs Lyon met?

Paris Saint-Germain 1–2 Lyon (2026-04-19 · Ligue 1). Over their last 6 meetings it is 4 wins for Paris St-G, 0 draws and 2 for Lyon.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.