Skip to content
UEFA Champions League

Porto vs Napoli prediction, tips and odds

  • league
  • Porto: must win
  • Napoli: high
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
UEFA Champions League

Our prediction

FormW, W, W, L, L

William Gomes (out), Oskar Pietuszewski (doubtful), Chris Smalling (out)

FormL, W, D, W, L

Kevin De Bruyne (doubtful), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (out), Mathias Olivera (out), Stanislav Lobotka (out), Alessandro Buongiorno (out), David Neres (out), Rasmus Hojlund (doubtful)

Our prediction
1–12.8 goals projected
POR 49%Draw 27%NAP 24%

De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.

goals per meeting
2.2goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
2/5with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
2/5over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Porto come throughOur pickPorto
    2.04
  • Porto avoid defeatOur pickPorto starts 1.5 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

How the model sees it

The market's readNot our model
POR 49%Draw 27%NAP 24%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–111%
  • 1–011%
  • 2–110%
Projected goals
2.8
Likeliest at half time
0–029%
Competition goals a game
3.47
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Porto against Napoli
StatPORNAPTotal
GoalsLeague 1.741.771.012.8
Expected goals (xG)League 1.611.831.383.2
CornersLeague 4.95.524.6310.1
Fouls11.210.321.5

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
PortoW, W, W, L, L
NapoliL, W, D, W, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendPORNAP
Over 2.5 goals2/53/5
Both teams scored1/53/5
Clean sheets3/50/5
Failed to score1/52/5
Head-to-head · last 5
2
POR wins
1
Draws
2
NAP wins
  • DNapoli 2–2 Porto2014-03-20 · UEFA Europa League, Round of 16 2nd leg4 gls
  • WPorto 1–0 Napoli2014-03-13 · UEFA Europa League, Round of 16 1st leg1 gls
  • WNapoli 1–3 Porto2013-08-04 · Emirates Cup (friendly), London4 gls
  • LPorto 0–1 Napoli1974-11-06 · UEFA Cup, Second Round 2nd leg1 gls
  • LNapoli 1–0 Porto1974-10-23 · UEFA Cup, Second Round 1st leg1 gls
2.2goals per meeting2/5with both teams scoring2/5over 2.5 goals

Match context

  • Clear and dry in Porto on 4 Nov (sunny, ~18C, 0% rain, light NE wind) - nothing flagged as disruptive
Form
Porto WWWLL in all comps (4-0 Estoril, 1-0 Viseu, 1-0 Gil Vicente, then 0-1 PSV and 2-3 Betis in the UCL); unbeaten domestically and top of Liga Portugal, but pointless in Europe. Napoli LWDWL: 0-2 Juve, 4-1 Monza, 3-3 Roma, 0-1 Venezia, 4-3 Bodø/Glimt — leaky and inconsistent.
History
Six verifiable meetings, but no competitive meeting since March 2014 and none ever in the Champions League; four of them were 1970s UEFA Cup ties (1974/75) and one a 2013 pre-season Emirates Cup friendly in London. Competitive record: Porto 1-0 Napoli (13 Mar 2014, EL last 16 1st leg), Napoli 2-2 Porto (20 Mar 2014, 2nd leg; Porto through 3-2), Napoli 1-0 Porto (23 Oct 1974), Porto 0-1 Napoli (6 Nov 1974); Napoli 2-0 agg. Friendly: Napoli 1-3 Porto (4 Aug 2013, Emirates Cup, London). Stature: b…
The competition
2026/27 UEFA Champions League league phase, Matchday 4 (Pan-European top level, 36 teams, single table, top 8 straight to R16, 9-24 into play-offs, 25-36 out). Porto are in a desperate position: three defeats from three (0-2 Man City, 2-3 Betis, 0-1 PSV) leave them pointless and near the bottom, so a home win is close to must-have to keep any play-off hope alive. Napoli, also on 3 points from three (0-1 Arsenal, 1-3 Villarreal, 4-3 Bodø/Glimt), need points too but sit better placed — both are p…

Team news

Porto
  • William Gomes — out (fwd)
  • Oskar Pietuszewski — doubtful (fwd)
  • Chris Smalling — out (def)
Napoli
  • Kevin De Bruyne — doubtful (mid)
  • Giovanni Di Lorenzo — out (def)
  • Mathias Olivera — out (def)
  • Stanislav Lobotka — out (mid)
  • Alessandro Buongiorno — out (def)
  • David Neres — out (fwd)
  • Rasmus Hojlund — doubtful (fwd)

UEFA Champions League table and leaders

UEFA Champions League standings
#ClubPLGDPts
1Arsenal8—24
2Bayern München8—21
3Liverpool8—18
4Tottenham Hotspur8—17
5Barcelona8—16
6Chelsea8—16

Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.

  1. 1Kylian MbappéReal Madrid15 goals
  2. 2Harry KaneBayern München14 goals
  3. 3Khvicha KvaratskheliaParis Saint-Germain10 goals
  4. 4Julián ÁlvarezAtlético Madrid10 goals
  5. 5Anthony GordonNewcastle United10 goals

Top scorers/assists: UEFA.com season stats, ESPN, StatMuse and BeSoccer (whole 2025/26 campaign). Clean sheets: StatMuse keeper table, season end.

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Porto vs Napoli prediction?

We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Porto 49%, the draw 27% and Napoli 24%.

What is the best bet for Porto vs Napoli?

Our tip is Full time result · Porto at 2.04. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Porto vs Napoli kick off?

Porto vs Napoli kicks off at Wed 20:00 in the UEFA Champions League.

Who is out for Porto vs Napoli?

Reported absences: William Gomes (out), Oskar Pietuszewski (doubtful), Chris Smalling (out), Kevin De Bruyne (doubtful), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (out), Mathias Olivera (out), Stanislav Lobotka (out), Alessandro Buongiorno (out), David Neres (out), Rasmus Hojlund (doubtful).

What happened the last time Porto vs Napoli met?

Napoli 2–2 Porto (2014-03-20 · UEFA Europa League, Round of 16 2nd leg). Over their last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Porto, 1 draw and 2 for Napoli.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.