Midtjylland vs Ajax prediction, tips and odds
- both score
- goals fest
- high ceiling
- weakened side
- high stakes
- league
- Midtjylland: high
- Ajax: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- UEFA Conference League
Our prediction
Elias Ólafsson (out), Martin Erlić (out), Magnus Jensen (out), Júnior Brumado (out), Mikel Gogorza (out)
Julian Brandt (out), Sofyan Amrabat (out), Viktor Tsygankov (out), Anton Gaaei (out), Simon Adingra (out)
De-vigged from the bookmakers — not our model.
- goals per meeting
- 3.5goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 2/2with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 2/2over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 Goals1.12
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 2.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–111%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
- Projected goals
- 3.1
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–024%
- Competition goals a game
- 2.48
- Competition matches over 2.5
- 54%
| Stat | MID | AJA | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GoalsLeague 1.24 | 1.52 | 1.62 | 3.1 |
| CornersLeague 4.3 | 4.86 | 4.21 | 9.1 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 13.5 | 25.1 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | MID | AJA |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 4/5 | 3/5 |
| Clean sheets | 0/5 | 2/5 |
| Failed to score | 1/5 | 0/5 |
- LAjax 3–1 FC Midtjylland2020-11-25 · UEFA Champions League group stage4 gls
- LFC Midtjylland 1–2 Ajax2020-11-03 · UEFA Champions League group stage3 gls
Match context
- Form
- Midtjylland WWWLW across their last five in all competitions (Nordsjaelland 3-2, OB 2-1, Lyngby 3-2, St Truiden 0-1 home loss, Viborg 2-1 a) — scoring freely but conceding in four of five; Ajax WWWWL (AZ 1-0, Sparta 2-1, Atalanta 2-0, Groningen 5-2, Hajduk 1-2 a), 11 scored, 5 c…
- History
- Only two previous meetings, both in the 2020/21 Champions League group stage, and Ajax won both: 2-1 in Herning (Nov 2020) and 3-1 in Amsterdam (Nov 2020, 0-0 at half-time). No league or Conference League history; first meeting in this competition. Those games are five years old and Ajax of that era was a stronger side, so the head-to-head tells us little. On current stature Ajax (Eredivisie 2nd, 24 pts) are somewhat the bigger club but Midtjylland are top of the Danish Superliga and in strong…
- The competition
- UEFA Conference League 2026/27 league phase, Matchday 3 of 8, single-leg at MCH Arena (no return leg). Both sides are mid-table after two rounds: Ajax are 13th on 3 pts (W then L, 3 GF/2 GA), Midtjylland drew at Egnatia and lost 0-1 at home to St Truiden, so they sit outside the visible top-24 cut with 1 point. With the top 8 going straight to the last 16 and 9th-24th into a play-off, every matchday-3 point matters to both — no dead rubber; a Midtjylland home win would put them back in the play…
Team news
- Elias Ólafsson — out (gk)
- Martin Erlić — out (def)
- Magnus Jensen — out (def)
- Júnior Brumado — out (fwd)
- Mikel Gogorza — out (fwd)
- Julian Brandt — out (mid)
- Sofyan Amrabat — out (mid)
- Viktor Tsygankov — out (fwd)
- Anton Gaaei — out (def)
- Simon Adingra — out (fwd)
UEFA Conference League table and leaders
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strasbourg | 6 | — | 16 |
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa | 6 | — | 14 |
| 3 | AEK Athens | 6 | — | 13 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 6 | — | 13 |
| 5 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | — | 13 |
| 6 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | — | 13 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
- 1Ismaïla SarrCrystal Palace9 goals
- 2Marius MouandilmadjiSamsunspor8 goals
- 3Mikael IshakLech Poznań8 goals
- 4Sven MijnansAZ Alkmaar6 goals
- 5Toni FrukRijeka5 goals
- 1Carlo HolseSamsunspor5 assists
- 2Kees SmitAZ Alkmaar5 assists
- 3Julio EncisoStrasbourg4 assists
- 4Daichi KamadaCrystal Palace4 assists
- 5Kauã EliasShakhtar Donetsk4 assists
- 1Mainz 056 clean sheets
- 2AEK Larnaca6 clean sheets
- 3Samsunspor6 clean sheets
- 4Crystal Palace6 clean sheets
- 5AZ Alkmaar6 clean sheets
UEFA.com season stats, Wikipedia league-phase table, GoalStatsLab totals
More UEFA Conference League tips this weekend
- KuPS vs Gent · Full time result · Gent1.68
- Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty · Full time result · Atalanta1.17
- Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split · Full time result · Hajduk Split1.39
- Trabzonspor vs Freiburg · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.11
- Mjallby vs Borac Banja Luka · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.14
- Thun vs Hearts · Full time · Over 1.5 Goals1.19
Frequently asked questions
What is our Midtjylland vs Ajax prediction?
We project 1–1. The bookmakers' own prices imply Midtjylland 36%, the draw 25% and Ajax 39%.
What is the best bet for Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Our tip is Full time · Under 5.5 Goals at 1.12.
What time does Midtjylland vs Ajax kick off?
Midtjylland vs Ajax kicks off at Thu 17:45 in the UEFA Conference League.
Who is out for Midtjylland vs Ajax?
Reported absences: Julian Brandt (out), Sofyan Amrabat (out), Viktor Tsygankov (out), Anton Gaaei (out), Simon Adingra (out), Elias Ólafsson (out), Martin Erlić (out), Magnus Jensen (out), Júnior Brumado (out), Mikel Gogorza (out).
What happened the last time Midtjylland vs Ajax met?
Ajax 3–1 FC Midtjylland (2020-11-25 · UEFA Champions League group stage). Over their last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Midtjylland, 0 draws and 2 for Ajax.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.