Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction, tips and odds
- even match
- cagey
- rotation risk
- high stakes
- weakened side
- cup
- Leg single
- Bournemouth: high
- Aston Villa: high
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- English Football League Cup
Our prediction
Aaron Wan-Bissaka (out), Matteo Ruggeri (out), Amadou Onana (out), Modou Keba Cisse (doubtful), Johan Manzambi (doubtful)
- goals per meeting
- 2.8goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 4/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 3/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Goals stay downOur pickUnder 5.5 Goals1.07
- A quiet first halfOur pickUnder 2.5 GoalsPrice hidden until revealed
How the model sees it
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 0–19%
- Projected goals
- 2.6
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–031%
| Stat | BOU | AST | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 1.22 | 2.6 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.64 | 1.32 | 3.0 |
| Shots | 14.6 | 12.0 | 26.6 |
| Shots on target | 4.5 | 3.7 | 8.2 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | BOU | AST |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 4/5 |
| Both teams scored | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Clean sheets | 3/5 | 1/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/5 | 0/5 |
- DBournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa2026-02-07 · Premier League2 gls
- LAston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth2025-11-09 · Premier League4 gls
- LBournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa2025-05-10 · Premier League1 gls
- DAston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth2024-10-26 · Premier League2 gls
- LAston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth2024-04-21 · Premier League4 gls
Match context
- Form
- Bournemouth LWWWW last five (5-1 loss at Chelsea, then four wins, three of them to nil); Villa WWWDW with three clean sheets and five unbeaten, beating Man City 2-1 last time out. Both scoring and keeping it fairly tight.
- History
- All six Premier League meetings since Oct 2023 sit inside one calendar span and are tight: Bournemouth 2-2 Villa (Dec 2023), Villa 3-1 Bournemouth (Apr 2024), Villa 1-1 Bournemouth (Oct 2024), Bournemouth 0-1 Villa (May 2025), Villa 4-0 Bournemouth (Nov 2025), Bournemouth 1-1 Villa (Feb 2026). Villa have not lost to Bournemouth in that run (3W 3D), but four of the six were decided by one goal or drawn, and Villa's one big win was at Villa Park — 2-1 aggregate-equivalent across the three at Vita…
- The competition
- English Football League Cup (Carabao Cup) 2026-27, Round Four / last 16 — a single-leg knockout tie at the Vitality Stadium, winner to the quarter-finals. Both clubs are Premier League sides: Bournemouth (13th, 9 pts from 8; 3 wins from 3 in their Europa League league phase) and Aston Villa (11 pts, 12th before their 24 Oct win). Most recent league games: Bournemouth won 3-0 at Man Utd (25 Oct), Villa beat Man City 2-1 (24 Oct). Cup route: Bournemouth 4-0 Lincoln City (R3), Villa 3-1 at Coventr…
Team news
- Alex Scott — out (mid)
- Eli Junior Kroupi — out (fwd)
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka — out (def)
- Matteo Ruggeri — out (def)
- Amadou Onana — out (mid)
- Modou Keba Cisse — doubtful (mid)
- Johan Manzambi — doubtful (mid)
English Football League Cup table
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | — | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | — | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | — | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | — | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | — | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | — | 11 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
More tips this week
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- Fulham vs Crystal Palace · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.08
- Sunderland vs Brentford · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.17
- Liverpool vs Chelsea · Liverpool starts 1 goal ahead1.20
- Khaan Khuns Erchim vs Ulaangom City FC · Full time result · Khaan Khuns Erchim1.56
- Kedah FA U20 vs Penang FC U20 · Full time result · Kedah FA U201.93
Frequently asked questions
What is our Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction?
We project 1–1. Our model gives Bournemouth 41%, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 33%.
What is the best bet for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Our tip is Full time · Under 5.5 Goals at 1.07.
What time does Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kick off?
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa kicks off at Wed 19:45 in the English Football League Cup.
Who is out for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Reported absences: Aaron Wan-Bissaka (out), Matteo Ruggeri (out), Amadou Onana (out), Modou Keba Cisse (doubtful), Johan Manzambi (doubtful), Alex Scott (out), Eli Junior Kroupi (out).
What happened the last time Bournemouth vs Aston Villa met?
Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa (2026-02-07 · Premier League). Over their last 6 meetings it is 0 wins for Bournemouth, 3 draws and 3 for Aston Villa.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.