Skip to content
sugardice
English Football League Cup

Man City vs Brighton prediction, tips and odds

  • cup
  • Leg single
  • Man City: normal
  • Brighton: normal
Kick-off
your local time
Competition
English Football League Cup

Our prediction

Man City
FormL, W, W, W, W

Erling Haaland (out), Gianluigi Donnarumma (out), Ruben Dias (out), Josko Gvardiol (out), Elliot Anderson (out), Antoine Semenyo (out), Matheus Nunes (doubtful)

Brighton
FormL, D, W, W, L

Chema Andres (doubtful), Ferdi Kadioglu (doubtful), Pascal Struijk (out)

Our prediction
1–13.2 goals projected
MAN 49%Draw 23%BRI 28%
goals per meeting
3.2goals per meeting
with both teams scoring
4/5with both teams scoring
over 2.5 goals
4/5over 2.5 goals
likeliest half-time score
0–0likeliest half-time score

Our picks

Rating hidden until revealed
  • Man City come throughOur pickMan City
    1.74
  • Brighton keep it closeOur pickBrighton starts 3 goals ahead
    Price hidden until revealed

Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.

Unlock all tips · 1 coin

How the model sees it

Result probability
MAN 49%Draw 23%BRI 28%
Likeliest scorelines
  • 1–110%
  • 2–19%
  • 1–08%
Projected goals
3.2
Likeliest at half time
0–024%
Projected stats
Projected match statistics for Man City against Brighton
StatMANBRITotal
Goals1.841.343.2
Expected goals (xG)1.681.563.2
Corners5.224.8110.0
Fouls10.412.522.9

Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.

Form, head-to-head and trends

Last five
Man CityL, W, W, W, W
BrightonL, D, W, W, L
How each side’s recent matches have gone
TrendMANBRI
Over 2.5 goals5/53/5
Both teams scored4/52/5
Clean sheets1/52/5
Failed to score0/52/5
Head-to-head · last 5
1
MAN wins
2
Draws
2
BRI wins
  • DManchester City 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion2026-01-07 · Premier League2 gls
  • LBrighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Manchester City2025-08-31 · Premier League3 gls
  • DManchester City 2–2 Brighton & Hove Albion2025-03-15 · Premier League4 gls
  • LBrighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Manchester City2024-11-09 · Premier League3 gls
  • WBrighton & Hove Albion 0–4 Manchester City2024-04-25 · Premier League4 gls
3.2goals per meeting4/5with both teams scoring4/5over 2.5 goals

Match context

Form
Man City W W W W L (5-1 AEK, 3-0 at Liverpool, 3-2 Ipswich, 5-3 Sunderland; lost 1-2 at Villa) — goals everywhere, rarely a clean sheet; Brighton W W D W L (5-0 Palace, 3-2 at Man Utd, 0-0 Jablonec, 0-2 at Liverpool) — free-scoring until blanked twice in a week.
History
Recent league meetings are unusually tight for a fixture the market makes City ~58% favourites: Brighton won 2-1 at the Amex (Nov 2024) and 2-1 at the Etihad (Aug 2025), City won 2-2... i.e. 2-2 draw at the Etihad (Mar 2025) and 1-1 draw at the Etihad (Jan 2026); City's last win in the series was 4-0 at Brighton (Apr 2024). So four straight without a City league win, three of those with both teams scoring. In the League Cup they met in 2008 (2-2, Brighton won 5-3 on pens). City remain the far b…
The competition
Carabao Cup (EFL Cup) 2026-27, Round Four — a knockout round (one leg, no replays; 19:30 at Etihad). City are the holders and entered in R3, beating Norwich 5-0; Brighton came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Man Utd in R3. Both clubs were in the Premier League's top three before the weekend (City 1st/21pts from 8, Brighton 3rd with 16 from 7 pre-Liverpool). Winner goes to the quarter-finals (w/c 14 Dec). The tie is sandwiched between league and European fixtures for both, so rotation is a live cons…

Team news

Man City
  • Erling Haaland — out (fwd)
  • Gianluigi Donnarumma — out (gk)
  • Ruben Dias — out (def)
  • Josko Gvardiol — out (def)
  • Elliot Anderson — out (mid)
  • Antoine Semenyo — out (fwd)
  • Matheus Nunes — doubtful (mid)
Brighton
  • Chema Andres — doubtful (mid)
  • Ferdi Kadioglu — doubtful (def)
  • Pascal Struijk — out (def)

More tips this week

18+Bet what you can afford to lose.

Model output is a projection, not a guarantee. Prices move; the one shown was available when this page was last built.

Frequently asked questions

What is our Man City vs Brighton prediction?

We project 1–1. Our model gives Man City 49%, the draw 23% and Brighton 28%.

What is the best bet for Man City vs Brighton?

Our tip is Full time result · Man City at 1.74. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.

What time does Man City vs Brighton kick off?

Man City vs Brighton kicks off at Wed 19:30 in the English Football League Cup.

Who is out for Man City vs Brighton?

Reported absences: Erling Haaland (out), Gianluigi Donnarumma (out), Ruben Dias (out), Josko Gvardiol (out), Elliot Anderson (out), Antoine Semenyo (out), Matheus Nunes (doubtful), Chema Andres (doubtful), Ferdi Kadioglu (doubtful), Pascal Struijk (out).

What happened the last time Man City vs Brighton met?

Manchester City 1–1 Brighton & Hove Albion (2026-01-07 · Premier League). Over their last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Man City, 2 draws and 2 for Brighton.

Are these tips free?

The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.