Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction, tips and odds
- goals fest
- both score
- high ceiling
- rotation risk
- weakened side
- cup
- Leg single
- Liverpool: normal
- Chelsea: normal
- Kick-off
- your local time
- Competition
- English Football League Cup
Our prediction
Florian Wirtz (doubtful), Hugo Ekitike (out), Conor Bradley (out), Jeremie Frimpong (out), Dominik Szoboszlai (out), Victor Munoz (doubtful)
Cole Palmer (out), Joao Pedro (out), Reece James (out), Emiliano Martinez (out)
- goals per meeting
- 3.0goals per meeting
- with both teams scoring
- 5/6with both teams scoring
- over 2.5 goals
- 4/6over 2.5 goals
- likeliest half-time score
- 0–0likeliest half-time score
Our picks
- Liverpool come throughOur pickLiverpool2.22
- Liverpool avoid defeatOur pickLiverpool starts 2.5 goals aheadPrice hidden until revealed
Implied by the bookmakers’ own prices, with the margin removed. The engine has not published a read on this match.
How the model sees it
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
- 2–08%
- Projected goals
- 3.2
- Likeliest at half time
- 0–023%
| Stat | LIV | CHE | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.03 | 1.21 | 3.2 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 12.9 | 26.7 |
| Corners | 5.31 | 5.6 | 10.9 |
| Fouls | 12.1 | 10.2 | 22.4 |
Per ninety minutes. Goals use the fitted goals model. Other stats combine each side’s rate with what its opponent allows, pulled toward the competition’s own average where the sample is thin; cards are anchored to the referee.
Form, head-to-head and trends
| Trend | LIV | CHE |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3/4 | 3/5 |
| Both teams scored | 3/4 | 3/5 |
| Clean sheets | 1/4 | 1/5 |
| Failed to score | 0/4 | 1/5 |
- DLiverpool 1–1 Chelsea2026-05-09 · Premier League2 gls
- LChelsea 2–1 Liverpool2025-10-04 · Premier League3 gls
- LChelsea 3–1 Liverpool2025-05-04 · Premier League4 gls
- WLiverpool 2–1 Chelsea2024-10-20 · Premier League3 gls
- WNeutral (Wembley) 1–0 Chelsea2024-02-25 · EFL Cup Final (aet)1 gls
Match context
- Single-leg Carabao Cup fourth round tie; if level after 90 minutes the tie goes straight to penalties (no replay)
- Form
- Liverpool unbeaten in the run found (2-0 Brighton, 4-3 Villarreal, 3-1 Spurs in the cup, win at Man City); Chelsea mixed: 0-2 home loss to Spurs, 0-2 win at Everton, 5-1 v Bournemouth, 2-2 Hull, 6-3 Leeds in the cup — goals at both ends.
- History
- Heavyweight Premier League pairing, 202nd all-competition meeting (Liverpool 87 wins, 67 defeats per LFC). Recent LEAGUE meetings are tight and low-scoring: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (9 May 2026, HT 1-1), Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool (4 Oct 2025), Chelsea 3-1 Liverpool (4 May 2025, HT 1-0), Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea (20 Oct 2024), Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool (Carabao Cup final, Feb 2024, aet). Last League Cup meetings were the 2022 and 2024 finals (both Liverpool). Chelsea have won 3 of the last 4 league meetings i…
- The competition
- EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) 2026-27, fourth round — a single-leg knockout tie at Anfield (Wed 28 Oct, 20:00), extra time/penalties if level. Both are Premier League heavyweights of similar standing: Liverpool sit 4th-5th in the PL with 15-16 pts from 8, Chelsea 5th with 13 pts from 8. Both progressed with heavily rotated XIs (Liverpool 3-1 v Spurs, Chelsea 6-3 v Leeds, both at home); Iraola has confirmed he will "again rotate". Nothing at stake beyond a quarter-final place.
Team news
- Florian Wirtz — doubtful (mid)
- Hugo Ekitike — out (fwd)
- Conor Bradley — out (def)
- Jeremie Frimpong — out (def)
- Dominik Szoboszlai — out (mid)
- Victor Munoz — doubtful (fwd)
- Cole Palmer — out (mid)
- Joao Pedro — out (fwd)
- Reece James — out (def)
- Emiliano Martinez — out (gk)
English Football League Cup table
| # | Club | PL | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | — | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | — | 13 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | — | 16 |
| 4 | Brentford | 8 | — | 11 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 8 | — | 11 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 8 | — | 11 |
Top 6 shown · as read when this competition was last scouted.
More tips this week
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- Fulham vs Crystal Palace · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.08
- Sunderland vs Brentford · Full time · Under 4.5 Goals1.17
- Bournemouth vs Aston Villa · Full time · Under 5.5 Goals1.07
- Khaan Khuns Erchim vs Ulaangom City FC · Full time result · Khaan Khuns Erchim1.56
- Kedah FA U20 vs Penang FC U20 · Full time result · Kedah FA U201.93
Frequently asked questions
What is our Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction?
We project 2–1. Our model gives Liverpool 57%, the draw 21% and Chelsea 22%.
What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Our tip is Full time result · Liverpool at 2.22. This one is implied by the bookmakers' prices rather than published by our engine.
What time does Liverpool vs Chelsea kick off?
Liverpool vs Chelsea kicks off at Wed 20:00 in the English Football League Cup.
Who is out for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Reported absences: Florian Wirtz (doubtful), Hugo Ekitike (out), Conor Bradley (out), Jeremie Frimpong (out), Dominik Szoboszlai (out), Victor Munoz (doubtful), Cole Palmer (out), Joao Pedro (out), Reece James (out), Emiliano Martinez (out).
What happened the last time Liverpool vs Chelsea met?
Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea (2026-05-09 · Premier League). Over their last 6 meetings it is 3 wins for Liverpool, 1 draw and 2 for Chelsea.
Are these tips free?
The prediction, the match data and our lead tip are free on every match page. The confidence behind each call — our probability, the edge and the engine's own read — is where a coin is spent.